Auteur: Jaco Schipper

Normaal vluchten beleggers in staatsobligaties. Maar waar vlucht je naar toe tijdens een crisis rondom … juist, staatsobligaties? … De goudprijs in euro’s zette deze week weer een record.

April 30, 2010 – Greece’s debt troubles are well known.  Less recognized is the worrying truth that Greece is just the tip of the iceberg.

There have been plenty of waings.  These include, for example, the recent downgrades of the debts of Spain and Portugal.  By highlighting the risks, the debt rating agencies have sent a signal with one certain outcome.  Heightened awareness over sovereign credit risk will grow, and rightly so.

A report released just last month by the Bank for Inteational Settlements, entitled “The future of public debt: prospects and implications”, made some startlingly frank and sobering conclusions.  The BIS report began eaestly:

“Since the start of the financial crisis, industrial country public debt levels have increased dramatically. And they are set to continue rising for the foreseeable future.”

It seems that gold and the Dow have an agreement regarding the number 10. This number has acted like a “golden ratio” in that things really start to happen before or after the Dow/gold ratio breaches 10, either way.

Bart Melek of BMO Capital Markets, who projected that the gold price could reach $1,600 per ounce by 2011. In his report, Melek cited a bevy of factors that should continue to contribute to the gold price advance – including long-term inflation conces, sovereign debt issues, the relatively poor long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies in general, and the market expectation that the Federal Reserve will not aggressively raise interest rates.

 

The BMO report went on to point out two additional factors supportive of higher gold prices. First, gold producers are engaging in essentially no hedging, and the official sector has become a significant net buyer of gold for the first time in more than 20 years. Furthermore, central banks may add to their gold reserves in order to diversify their foreign exchange holdings amid the currency debasement rampant across the globe. As for the Inteational Monetary Fund’s plan to sell the remaining 191.3 metric tons of gold announced last fall, Melek expects it to have only a modest negative impact on the price of gold.

Current economic policies are not sustainable and the world faces doom because “the govements are taking over”, said Marc Faber, editor & publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

“They will all bankrupt us and expropriate us, but it may not happen tomorrow. They’ll give us something to play with, until the whole system breaks down…they’ll just print money and print more money,” he said on CNBC Thursday.

“What I object to the current govement intervention in so-called ‘solving the crisis’, (is that) they haven’t solved anything. They’ve just postponed it.”

Faber waed that the “ultimate armageddon” would be much worse the next time around, as “govements will go bust”, which would lead them to print more money. He also waed that China’s growth was “completely unsustainable in the long run,” highlighting the red-hot property sector.

 

• www.amsterdamgold.com
• www.wobblie.nl
• www.willemmiddelkoop.com

Beleggen in termijn-contracten van goud wordt door Amsterdamgold.com vermeden. Het is ons inziens niet mogelijk om verkochte claims op toekomstige hoeveelheden goud te garanderen. Uit een aantal rapporten van gerenommeerde financiële instituten blijkt dat in de goudmarkt geïntervenieerd wordt om de goudprijs te onderdrukken.

 

Met andere woorden, goud van centrale banken wordt geleend door zogeheten ‘bullion banks’ en dat goud wordt verkocht. Deze papieren handel verhoogt het aanbod  op de papieren goud-markt met een lagere prijs als gevolg. Het blijft een vraag of dit aanbod van papier-goud een lang leven beschoren is.