Categorie: Laatste blogs

OM onderzoekt ABN Amro vanwege witwassen

KOPENHAGEN – Oud-bestuurder en voormalig ‘kroonprins’ van ABN AMRO Chris Vogelzang zegt niets te weten over de verdenkingen rond de Nederlandse grootbank. Vogelzang is momenteel topman van Danske Bank, die gebukt gaat onder de nasleep van een groot witwasschandaal.

“Ik heb geen kennis van zaken over wat er zich afspeelt bij ABN AMRO. Ik wil ook geen commentaar geven over een bank waarbij ik al drie jaar niet meer werk”, was de reactie van de Danske-bestuurder op het nieuws rond ABN. Het Openbaar Ministerie onderzoekt of ABN zich aan de regels heeft gehouden bij het voorkomen van witwassen en financieren van terrorisme.

Vogelzang is bij Danske Bank aangenomen om onder meer de reputatie van de kredietverlener te herstellen. Zijn ervaring bij ABN AMRO is toen als een belangrijke positieve factor genoemd. Er lopen momenteel meerdere onderzoeken naar de betrokkenheid van de Deense bank bij witwassen. De financiële instelling gaf toe gefaald te hebben in het opsporen van miljarden dollars aan verdachte transacties in zijn Estse tak. Deze week werd de voormalige directeur van dat onderdeel, Aivar Rehe, dood gevonden.

Sinds zijn aantreden bij Danske Bank afgelopen zomer richtte Vogelzang zich op het voorkomen van witwassen. Zo kondigde de Deense bank onlangs zijn wirwar van duizenden functies en titels onder de loep te nemen om beter inzicht te krijgen in wie wat doet bij de bank. Ook worden de afdelingen die werken aan het voorkomen van witwaspraktijken versterkt.

26 september 2019
Prijs goud en zilver jarenlang gemanipuleerd

Dinsdag 18 september 2019 | Bron: AFN |

Het leken spookorders: zakenbanken legden de orders voor aan- en verkoop van metaal in, lokten daarmee biedingen van anderen uit, en na geheime onderlinge chats annuleerden ze opeens de eigen orders. De prijs werd zo wel doorlopend opgekrikt, waarvan weer andere handelaren profiteerden.

Voor dit ’spoofing’, de gecoördineerde manipulatie van de termijnmarkten voor goud, zilver, platina en palladium tussen handelaren van verschillende banken, heeft de Amerikaanse justitie drie medewerkers van zakenbank JPMorgan Chase aangeklaagd. Eerder bekenden Deutsche Bank, HSBC en UBS schuld aan de illegale praktijk. Ze betaalden ieder boetes tot $30 miljoen. De tot vorige maand bij JPMorgan actieve Michael Nowak (45), hoofd van de handelsdesk voor edelmetalen, claimt nu dat hij acht jaar lang steun van de bestuurstop had. Ook voormalig collega John Edmons meldde vorig jaar „dat mij werd opgedragen om geplaatste orders vlak voor uitvoering terug te nemen”. Daardoor kochten anderen tegen „een opgevoerde prijs”.

Zestien mensen aangeklaagd

Inmiddels zijn zestien mensen aangeklaagd. Telkens blijkt dat de praktijken jarenlang konden voortbestaan. Het personeel op de handelsdesks van Wall Street-banken was decennia lang roemrucht vanwege hun bravoure met deals, hun branietaal vol gevloek en getier en de vaak verfilmde uitspattingen in bars en nachtsclubs. Dit voorjaar schikte de Europese Commissie nog eens met zes zakenbanken, tegen €1 miljard, vanwege hun kartelvorming in de valutamarkt. Door onderling afspraken maken werden vermogende klanten voor honderden miljoenen gedupeerd, aldus Brussel.

Verboden afspraken

De handelaren van de ’concurrenten’ hadden hun prijzen na verboden afspraken via meerdere chatrooms jarenlang hoger gezet. Na spitwerk en tips ontdekte de Europese Commissie dat JPMorgan in drie jarenlang opererende kartels, met illustere namen als Two and a half men, Only Marge en Three way banana, doorlopendmet met UBS, Barclays, RBS en Citigroup de prijzen omhoog schroefde. In 2017 schikte JPMorgan Chase voor $13 miljard in met de Amerikaanse justitie wegens verkoop van waardeloze hypotheekbeleggingen aan klanten.

18 september 2019
Oliebedrijven favoriet op Japanse beurs

Dinsdag 17 september 2019 | Bron: AFN |

TOKIO (AFN) – In Japan, waar beleggers terugkeerden na een lang weekend, is de aandelenbeurs dinsdag licht hoger begonnen aan de verkorte handelsweek. Beleggers verwerkten de sterke stijging van de olieprijzen na de aanvallen op Saudische olie-installaties afgelopen zaterdag. Daarnaast liet president Donald Trump weten dat de Verenigde Staten en Japan een voorlopig handelsakkoord hebben bereikt.

De hoofdindex in Tokio, de Nikkei 225, eindigde 0,1 procent in de plus op 22.001,32 punten. De Japanse oliebedrijven Inpex en Japan Petroleum Exploration dikten 9,7 procent en 7,9 procent aan. Luchtvaartmaatschappij Japan Airlines zakte 1,9 procent door de vrees voor hogere kerosineprijzen. De olieprijzen liepen dinsdag weer iets terug na de stijging van rond 13 procent een dag eerder.

Technologiegigant SoftBank, een zwaargewicht in de Nikkei, verloor 3 procent. De verhuurder van gedeelde werkruimtes WeWork, waar SoftBank een grote investeerder in is, zal volgens zakenkrant The Wall Street Journal pas op zijn vroegst in oktober een beursnotering krijgen.

De Chinese beurzen gingen omlaag. Beleggers bleven voorzichtig door de toegenomen geopolitieke spanningen in het Midden-Oosten. Ook werd gewacht op de Amerikaanse Federal Reserve, die later op de dag begint aan zijn tweedaagse rentevergadering. De beurs in Shanghai noteerde tussentijds 1,6 procent lager en de Hang Seng-index in Hongkong zakte 1,5 procent. De Kospi in Seoul noteerde nagenoeg vlak en de Australische All Ordinaries klom 0,1 procent.

17 september 2019
Werkloosheid in Nederland veel hoger dan gedacht

Het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek berichtte vorige week dat de werkloosheid in Nederland voor het eerst sinds de zomer van 2011 weer onder de 5% gedaald is. Dat lijkt misschien goed nieuws, maar achter deze cijfers gaat een enorme verborgen werkloosheid schuil. Volgens de officiële statistieken waren er in juni 446.000 personen werkloos, maar wat de cijfers niet vertellen is dat veel Nederlanders beneden hun opleidingsniveau werken of veel minder uren kunnen maken dan ze eigenlijk zouden willen.

Officiële werkloosheid daalde in juni naar 4,9% (Bron: CBS)

Flexwerk en deeltijdwerk

De laatste jaren hebben meer mensen inderdaad een baan kunnen vinden, maar dat zijn lang niet altijd fulltime banen waar je een huishouden mee kunt onderhouden. En dat geeft een vertekening van het werkloosheidscijfer, omdat ook mensen met parttime banen en oproepkrachten die maar een paar uur per week werken volledig als werkende worden meegenomen.

Alle Nederlanders die tijdens de crisis werkloos zijn geraakt en die nu een paar uur per week werken zijn volgens de cijfers niet meer werkloos, maar achter dit cijfer schuilt wel een toenemende armoede. Wie van een fulltime baan naar een parttime baan gaat is niet werkloos, maar zal er in koopkracht wel aanzienlijk op achteruit gaan.

De daling van de werkloosheid van de laatste jaren is vooral het resultaat van de toename van het aantal deeltijdbanen en flexibele arbeidscontracten. Dezelfde hoeveelheid werk wordt door meer mensen gedaan, waardoor het alleen maar lijkt alsof er meer werkgelegenheid is.

Percentage werknemers met flexibele arbeidscontracten sterk toegenomen (Bron: CBS)

Verborgen werkloosheid

Ook de Nederlandsche Bank kwam eerder deze zomer tot de conclusie dat de werkloosheidscijfers de werkelijke krapte op de arbeidsmarkt overschatten. Volgens hun berekeningen moeten er nog een half miljoen werklozen bij de cijfers van het CBS worden opgeteld die wel willen werken, maar dat op dit moment niet kunnen. Daarnaast zijn er volgens de centrale bank nog ongeveer een miljoen Nederlanders die wel een baan hebben, maar die veel meer uren willen maken.

Neem je deze factoren mee, dan kom je uit op een werkloosheid die ruim drie keer zo hoog is als het officiële werkloosheidscijfer van 4,9%. Deze bevindingen verklaren ook waarom de lonen en de inflatie nog steeds niet stijgen.

Deze bijdrage is afkomstig van Geotrendlines

25 juli 2017
Why the ECB should buy gold instead of bonds from Eurozone countries

Article written by Richard van der Linde, first published on Linkedin

‘What would you do with €80 billion per month to stimulate the economy in Europe?’

That was the question posted by the makers of a documentary for Dutch national television (VPRO Tegenlicht) about money creation by the ECB. A few days after the broadcast there would be a Meet Up and the makers called upon the general public to propose alternatives for the current ECB policy of buying bonds for €80 bln a month. I sent the following proposal and was selected to discuss the idea with a panel of economists who –by the end of the discussion – seemed to like the idea.

Does the ECB really create money?

Yes and no. Money as we know it is actually credit – created by banks. The stuff the ECB makes is another type of money that we regularly call ‘reserves’. Whenever we transfer money to someone at another bank, our account is credited by our bank, but in the background they actually transfer reserves to the other bank.

What is more important to understand is that when the ECB buys bonds or other assets from a bank, they rarely transfer wealth to that bank. There may be side effects from that transfer that banks profit from – like increasing prices of certain types of assets – but the essential message is that when the ECB buys bonds for an amount of €80 bln, the sellers hardly get any richer. All that is happening, is that the wealth of the sellers is becoming more liquid. Banks make a slight profit on the sale, but still only a fraction of the €80 bln. So, the ECB does create a particular type of money, but they are not handing it out to banks.

Could the ECB provide people with, for example, a basic income instead?
Luckily not. The ECB is created by governments for the purpose of having a board of smart people to increase or decrease the amount of central bank money to keep prices steady. And, by steady, I mean inflation between 0-2%. These people are not elected democratically and are not to decide on the way the government spends its wealth. They just convert existing financial assets (mainly government bonds) into central bank money or reverse the process whenever they think it is needed in order to keep prices within the range their mandate prescribes. Only, people keep believing that the ECB could provide a basic income while they only seem to support banks. And that’s how I ended up at a Meet Up where the audience kept proposing ideas for spending the money on all sorts of social programs. Of course, you could change the statutes of any government body, but there lies no practical value in such debates since people like to see some change happening within their own life time. How about the real alternatives?
Solving a sudoku
You can certainly debate the validity of the objective of economic growth, the practice of government intervention and even about the nature of the Eurozone. But within the paradigm of a Eurozone that seeks growth through monetary policy, the options are limited. Many economists argue for governments to spend more into the private sector to regain more growth but member states don’t want to let go of the 3% ceiling for budget deficits, meaning that not many new government bonds will come into existence while the ECB already bought most of them. Of course this is nothing more than a very large sudoku since all the rules and objectives are man made and subject to change. The ECB is currently shifting to buying corporate bonds to reach its monthly spending target of €80 bln, but it’s hard to see why that would result in any economic growth. If you want the government to increase spending, but not to increase its debt, then you should buy some of its assets to enable them to spend more money (that can be taxed back in the future).
Buying government’s assets instead of its debt
A government has many assets on its balance sheet, but my proposal at the Meet Up was aimed at one asset in particular. It’s an asset of which it is hard to imagine why a country would still hold any of it, especially when being a member of a currency union. I’m talking about gold, of course. The Eurozone countries hold over 10,000 tonnes of gold, which amounts to about €400 bln. The ECB already has some 50 tonnes of gold and I’d like them to shift their monetary policy to buying the gold of Eurozone countries. To prevent side effects from irrational behavior my proposal includes that countries would get an option to buy back their own gold for the same price at any later date and that the gold would remain in the member state vaults where it is currently kept. Should there still be any hidden connection between gold reserves and the value of a currency, then you can imagine in this case why that wouldn’t amount to anything substantial since the gold has already accrued on the balance sheet of the ECB through all the government bonds it holds. More important for the value of the euro is how those member states will spend the money they receive from selling the gold.
Mario Draghi and the basic income
Here’s the good news for those in favor of a basic income or other social programs: the money that governments receive can be used to finance such proposals. And if they don’t, you can punish them at the next election. So, don’t blame Mario Draghi for not spending the €80 bln on social programs, but, if anything, blame him instead for not buying gold from Eurozone countries! Richard van der Linde

13 december 2016
Reading through the gassy lines: What is the future for the European Gas Market?

This article on the future of the European Energy Market is written by Carola Dieudonné, reporter on Euro-Russian affairs. This article originally appeared on Climategate.nl. It covers the latest developments on the European gas market.

Reading through the gassy lines: what is the future for the European Gas Market?

A brief take on the European Autumn Gas Conference (EAGC)

At the annual EAGC event, which took place at the World Forum in The Hague between the 14 and 16 of November 2016, high level energy professionals of major gas and energy companies and experts from academia discussed the new realities for the gas industry. Topics included the new sources of gas supply, energy security, infrastructure projects and geopolitical relationships.

EU Gas Demand

To better understand the European gas market, it might be useful to first look at EU’s gas supply portfolio, as presented by ACER & CEER’s Annual Report on the Results of Monitoring the Internal Natural Gas Markets in 2015.

EU gas supply portfolio by origin in 2015 in % (100% = 437 bcm)

Natural gas and LNG

As shown in the graph, the EU relies on imports of piped gas or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Russia is the main EU supplier with a share of around 30% of supplies (42% share of imports from third countries), followed by Norway and Algeria. LNG imports totalled more than 12% of EU supplies in 2015, a 18% increase compared to 2014. Qatar is the key LNG supplier, followed by Algeria. Domestic conventional EU production accounts for less than 30% of overall gas supplies and its share continues to decrease (-8% in 2015 vs 2014 and -10% in 2014 vs 2013, approximately 15bcm less in two years). It is expected that by 2030 the share of domestic production could drop to below 20%. An important factor for this is Groningen field’s decreased production (-24% in 2015).

Paul Corcoran, Finance Director of the Nord Stream 2 AG, pointed out that EU gas demand will remain steady. The EU domestic gas production has fallen and is expected to continue to fall further within the next 20 years. According to him, traditional suppliers from Norway and Northern Africa will not be able to supply Europe at today’s level anymore and there is not much gas supply to be expected from the Caspian region. Renewables are unable to fill the supply gap and coal is not an environmentally-friendly alternative. This means that additional infrastructure is necessary to fill a substantial import gap of about 120 bcm. Corcoran stated that, Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) and Russian gas are the only two true solutions.

Future European gas demand

Nord Stream 2 is on track

According to Corcoran, Nord Stream 2 is able to deliver up to 55bcm per year, “which can supplement, not replace other supply options”. Corcoran mentioned that the Nord Stream 2 project is on track and the pipeline will be ready to deliver gas from the end of 2019 onwards: the pipe-lay contract award will be done before end of 2016 and the construction will start in 2018. Technically, since Nord Stream 2 broadly follows the Nord Stream 1 routes across the Baltic Sea, it can be launched straight into the Nord Stream 1 project. As a European project, it includes many.

European Gas Network (Source: Southfront.org)

Ludger Hümbs from GASCADE Gastransport discussed the European Gas Connecting People (), a pipeline that is to be constructed to distribute the natural gas arriving in Germany via Nord Stream 2 to the heart of Europe through a secure transport network. According to Hümbs, via this pipeline, flexibility and supply security in the market will be increased, especially in South-Eastern European market. EUGAL, a subsidiary of Gazprom, is able to interlink various infrastructures in Germany and neighbouring countries and is fully EU-regulated. The building of the pipeline is supposed to start from the beginning of 2018, so that gas can start flowing at the end of 2019.

New pipeline project in Germany (Source: Welt)

Tapping into concerns over energy security, Philip Lambert, Chief Executive Officer of Lambert Energy Advisory, pointed out that Russia had been a reliable deliverer of gas to Europe for almost 50 years with the exceptions of two weeks in 2008/2009.

For some context, this is a reference to Russia’s gas supply cut-off to Ukraine in January 2009. The cut-off happened as a result of various transit and price discordances, and failed negotiations when Russian Gazprom refused to conclude a supply contract for 2009, unless the Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz paid its accumulating debts for previous gas supplies. In the end, the issue was settled between Putin and Tymoshenko via a new contract deal. However, for some countries, such as the Baltics and South-eastern European countries, it signalled the importance of gas supply diversity and transit security to avoid the risk of sudden gas flow interruptions.

LNG to diversify EU’s Gas Supply

Much attention was given to LNG as an alternative energy source for Europe. Jason Bardoff US, professor of professional practice in International and Public Affairs and founding director of Center on Global Energy policy of Columbia University, pointed to the great potential of U.S. LNG supply, made possible by the Shale Revolution. According to Bardoff, cheap LNG has great potential for the European market; until now most U.S. LNG cargoes have gone to South-America. He also referred to the geopolitical, foreign policy and energy security concerns of Europe, because of the perceived insecurity of Russian gas dependence. Yet, according to Bardoff, “security comes not from getting off of Russian gas, because it is by far the cheapest source of gas and had been a reliable supplier of gas to the vast majority in Europe. The security comes from increasing integration and interconnectivity in the pipeline network to allow more optionality in the event of disruptions in certain places”.

Andrew Walker, Cheniere Marketing’s vice president for strategy, emphasized LNG is important for the European supply diversity and is perceived as such among policymakers. Although not much LNG has been exported to Europe yet, supply to Europe is likely to increase with new LNG projects from Australia.

During a discussion session John Roberts, Senior Partner of Methinks and former Managing Editor of Platts and Financial Times Energy, stressed the importance of energy security. For interconnectedness among European member states, upgraded infrastructure was needed. In this way, all countries of the European continent have access to gas market competition and, are able to deal with potential crises in case of major pipeline cut-offs from Russia or Norway.

An effective distribution system, therefore, between European member states facilitates free gas flow between LNG terminals on the Baltic, Adriatic, and Aegean Seas. Some steps have already been taken; as such, it should be noted that Lithuania and Poland already invested in off-shore LNG terminals (Klaipeda and Świnoujście respectively) for increased supply diversity, and energy independence from its main Russian gas supplier. The lower reliance on its main supply source enables gas price negotiations and energy-security guarantees for neighbouring countries.

A Gas Paradigm Shift is Urgent: Gas as a Climate Change Solution

A predominant theme throughout the event was how to improve the general image of natural gas in a post- COP21 reality. Generally speaking, most experts agreed that the gas industry had to better convey the benefits of natural gas, and emphasize its role as a green solution committed to the energy transition.

According to Philip Lambert, the gas industry is facing an “existential crisis”. He reasoned how this was completely unreasonable, since gas does not emit sulphur or particles, in contrast to the coal industry which creates urban smog around the world. Gas companies are “pathetic at defending [their] fuel” and should, therefore, not let themselves be “hijacked by carbon”. Instead, they have to promote natural gas as a green fuel able to sort out the world’s atmosphere in a responsible and affordable way, instead of promoting costly renewables.

Lambert also promoted Britain’s policies of closing down the coal industry. As such, he quoted Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change who said “one of the greatest and most cost-effective contributions we can make to emission reductions in electricity is by replacing coal fired power stations with gas.”

In a similar line, Dr. Ludwig Möhring, Managing Director Sales of WINGAS (Gazprom subsidiary), put emphasis on the need for the gas sector to engage in the energy transition discourse. He argued that, despite the costs, German policymakers want to move away from fossil fuels and go all-electric in order to combat climate change.

German greenhouse gas emission (1990-2015) (Source: Cleanenergywire)

At the same time, Möhring presented a graph showing that “after five years of spending billions of euros on renewable energy in Germany, climate targets have failed and the effect was practically zero”. Yet, according to Möhring, the political discourse will remain anti-fossil fuels and pro-renewables. Therefore, the gas industry has to make a good case for gas as a green solution able to combat climate change, and build coalitions of support with, for instance, NGO’s.

Similarly, Marjan van Loon, president-director of Shell Netherlands, also argued that “gas advocacy will have to be replaced by energy transition advocacy”. For this, “more and better cross-sector collaboration” is necessary to bring the gas and renewables partnership to its full potential. At the same time, van Loon mentioned that “more policy changes in favour of gas are needed” and that “there is homework for Brussels to be done”. As such, “robust carbon policies are required to make the switch to a lower CO2 energy system” and encourage coal to gas switching in the power industry.

Written by Carola Dieudonné, Euro-Russian affairs analist. Follow Carola on twitter: @caroladieudonne

22 november 2016
Russia adds 40 tonnes to gold reserves

Russia has added over 40 tonnes of gold to it’s reserves in October, according to the latest data released by the Central Bank of Russia. Since 2006, the year in which the country started to accumulate gold, they never added such a great amount of gold as last month. By adding 1.3 million troy ounce (40,43 tonnes), the total gold reserves of the Russian Federation reached 1.583,17 tonnes. Valued against a gold price of $1.265 per troy ounce, this gold hoard equals a market value of $64,43 billion.

The past ten years Russia has quadrupled it’s gold reserves from less than 400 ton almost 1.600 tonnes. And while the precious metal represented less than 4% of the total reserves, today it is about 16,5% of the total reserves. The shift from foreign exchange reserves to gold is a process which started in 2006, but it gained more speed during the financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of the price of oil in 2014.

Russian gold reserves quadrupled since 2006

International reserves of Russia

From currency to gold reserves

Russia wants to reduce it’s dependency on dollars and therefore it keeps diversifying away to euro’s and gold. Last year Dmitry Tulin, governor of the Central bank of Russia, stated that only gold reserves are a one hundred percent insurance against political and legal risk. This advantage is great enough to overcome the volatility in the price of gold.

In the first ten months of this year Russia has added 167,73 tonnes of gold to it’s reserves, which equals to little over 200 tonnes on an annual basis. That would be on par with the record gold purchase of 206 tonnes in 2015.

Annual purchase of gold by Russia since 2006

Central banks buy gold

The Central Bank of Russia is the largest gold buyer of all central banks. The country takes the sixth position on the list of countries with the largest gold reserves, behind the United States, Germany, Italy, France and China. Other countries buying lots of gold in the last couple of years are China and Kazachstan.

Central banks became net buyers of gold in 2010 and are still adding precious metals to their reserves. According to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), gold will make a comeback as an important monetary reserve.

This article is brought to you by Hollandgold, precious metals dealer in the Netherlands. For more information on buying gold, you can contact them at [email protected] or by phone +31(0)88-4688400.

22 november 2016
Apple speelt gegevens klanten door aan veiligheidsdienst

Apple doet niet moeilijk met het doorspelen van klantgegevens, zo blijkt uit de Podesta emails die Wikileaks heeft vrijgegeven. Een medewerker van Apple laat in een email aan John Podesta weten ‘duizenden keren per maand’ gegevens van Apple klanten en apparaten door te geven aan overheden. Het technologiebedrijf doet dit in het geval van gerechtelijke procedures, wanneer gegevens van klanten en hun telefoons belangrijk bewijs kunnen bevatten in een opsporingsonderzoek.

Apple heeft zelfs een team dat 24/7 bereikbaar is om dit soort verzoeken van de autoriteiten uit te voeren. Een noemenswaardig detail: De encryptie van gegevens is voor het technologiebedrijf geen obstakel om gegevens van klanten los te krijgen. En als de data zelf niet uitgelezen kan worden van telefoons, dan kan Apple altijd nog beschikken over meta-data zoals locatie en tijdstip.

Eerder dit jaar lagen de FBI en Apple nog met elkaar overhoop over de beveiliging van de iPhone. De Amerikaanse inlichtingendienst vroeg het technologiebedrijf om het besturingssysteem van de iPhone aan te passen, zodat het voor de inlichtingendienst makkelijker zou worden om in te breken op een toestel. Maar uit deze email blijkt dat er nu al op grote schaal informatie wordt doorgegeven aan de inlichtingendienst.

Apple speelt duizenden keren per maand gegevens door aan opsporingsambtenaren (Bron: Wikileaks)

26 oktober 2016
Rabobank: “Gold is a bubble which will burst”

Gold is a bubble which will burst, according to Rabobank chief investment officer Han Dieperink. In his latest update on financial markets, he expects gold to drop below $500 per troy ounce, much lower than the current price of about $1.315 per troy ounce. He sees a pattern in the price of gold which resembles a bubble that is about to burst, presented in the graph below. Apparently, he doesn’t take into consideration the lowest interest rates ever recorded in human history and the fact that central banks are adding gold to their reserves.

According to Dieperink, the inflation-adjusted price of gold has been around $400 per troy ounce for the last hundred years. From his perspective, the rise of gold to $1.900 per troy ounce back in 2011 was clearly a bubble. Based on his bubble theory, he expects the gold price to fall by as much as 70% to a level below $500 per troy ounce. The Rabobank analyst made a similar forecast in late 2015. Since then, the price of gold rose from a multi-year bottom of $1.060 all the way to $1.370 per troy ounce.

Rabobank still negative on gold

While analysts from ABN Amro, JP Morgan and Credit Suisse revised their gold forecast to a new reality of lower rates and more quantitative easing, the Rabobank sticks to the $500 scenario. Dieperink points to the negative interest rates, the Brexit referendum and fear in the financial markets to explain the rising price of gold since the beginning of this year. But apparently, he doesn’t expect those fundamentals to have a long-lasting impact on the price of the precious metal.

Rabobank expects gold to drop to less than $500 per troy ounce

Gold is not a commodity

According to Dieperink, there is no reason why the price of gold can’t drop below the cost of production (about $850 per troy ounce), because there is a huge above ground supply of gold in the market. This is a weakness in his reasoning, because the value of gold is not determined only by it’s use as a commodity. If that would be the case, the metal would have been worthless already, since there has been a substantial supply of above ground gold for centuries. The stock to flow ratio of gold will gradually increase over time, due to large scale gold mining.

For central banks and a large part of the world population, gold is more a wealth reserve than a commodity. The use of gold in industry is limited, because there are often cheaper alternatives around. Instead, most of the gold is held by individuals and centrale banks in the form of jewelry, coins and bars. In other words, as an alternative store of value and as a wealth reserve. The price of gold doesn’t go to zero, because the metal is being hoarded by savers and investors around the world.

In an environment of negative rates and with growing distrust towards central banks and governments, more people favor physical gold over paper financial assets. Russia, China and other central banks are not buying gold to make a buck from a new bull market in gold. No, they buy it as a tangible wealth reserve besides foreign exchange reserves.

Flight to safety

The wealthy are looking for a safe haven and the number of options is shrinking rapidly. When you think gold is a bubble, you might want to call government bonds a bubble as well. What is the purpose of buying a government bond, if the expected cashflow is zero or even negative.

20 juli 2016
Grafiek: Zo hoog is de werkloosheid in de VS

Het laatste banencijfer uit de Verenigde Staten was in één woord samen te vatten als een teleurstelling, maar dat kan ook gezegd worden van het herstel van de Amerikaanse arbeidsmarkt sinds het uitbreken van de financiële crisis. Dat komt omdat mensen die langdurig werkloos zijn en die niet meer actief naar werk zoeken volgens de statistieken niet meer als ‘werkloos’ beschouwd worden en verplaatst worden naar de categorie ‘Not In Labor Force‘ waar nu al bijna 95 miljoen Amerikanen onder vallen.

Neem je deze groep wel mee in het officiële werkloosheidscijfer, dan kom je uit op een werkloosheidspercentage van meer dan tien procent. Dat is twee keer zo hoog als het cijfer dat de grote kranten en nieuwssites overnemen uit het persbericht. Om toch met een positieve noot te eindigen: De werkloosheid begint de laatste jaren weer iets te dalen, maar het gaat lang niet zo snel als het officiële cijfer doet vermoeden!

Werkloosheid in de VS is in werkelijkheid veel hoger

13 juni 2016
ABN Amro revised gold price forecast to $1.300

The ABN Amro revised their gold price forecast for 2016 from $900 to $1.300 per troy ounce. The upward revision is remarkable, because the bank held a negative stance towards gold for the past couple of years. As recently as December last year, precious metals analyst Georgette Boele was still convinced the gold price would find a bottom at around $900 during 2016. In her forecast for this year, she wrote about the downward pressure on gold because of the expectation of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Boele explained she was caught by surprise by the sudden turmoil in the financial markets, which painted a bleak picture for the state of the world economy in both the United States and in the emerging markets around the world. Boele is expecting more trouble ahead for those countries relying on the export of commodities.

Interest rates

She also revised her expectations regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy. The probability of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve diminished substantially because of the downturn in the stock market and the sudden move to safe havens like precious metals. With higher interest rates, buying gold becomes less attractive, because the yellow metal doesn’t yield any interest or dividends.

Expectations of rising interest rates drove the price of gold down to the lowest level in more than five years, but now the outlook has changed. Falling share prices and the exceptionally low price of oil suggest that the global economy is growing at a much slower pace. As a result, banking stocks are under even more pressure, losing 20% on average since the start of 2016.

Gold price moving up

The price of gold has risen more than 15% this year, a strong rally making it the best performing commodity of 2016 so far. The sudden price increase from the lowest level in five years caught analyst Boele by surprise. In an explanation for Bloomberg she said: “Having been long-standing bears we have now turned bullish on precious metal prices. Our new scenario sees a longer period of weaker global growth.”

She also revised her 2016 forecast for other precious metals. From $15,00 to $16,50 per troy ounce for silver and from $900 to $1.050 for one troy ounce of platinum.

ABN Amro was expecting $900 gold in 2016 just a few months ago

This article is provided by Goudstandaard.com

19 februari 2016