Tag: gold

  • Chinese gold imports dropped further in April

    Chinese gold imports dropped for the third month in a row in April, according to new data released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Net gold imports from Hong Kong amounted to 67,04 tonnes, the lowest volume in more than a year. The volume dropped by 21,2% compared to a month ago and by 11,6% compared to the same month of last year. In april 2013, net imports from Hong Kong were about 10 tonnes higher at approximately 77 tonnes.

    A gold trader from Shanghai explained the development to the Economic Times of India: “Banks have adequate stocks from imports earlier in the year, and in some cases, even last year, that they are waiting to dispose of. Any new imports will have to wait until they clear the backlog”.

    China imported less gold from Hong Kong in April

    China imported less gold from Hong Kong in April

    China is buying less gold?

    The figures from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department suggest the demand for the yellow metal in China is waning. The latest report from the World Gold Council on gold demand in the first quarter of 2014 confirm this trend. Sales of bars and coins dropped substantially, as well as the premium on physical gold in China.

    However, it would be premature to draw final conclusions based on the gold imports from Hong Kong. While these numbers do cover the bulk of Chinese gold imports, they do not include precious metals being shipped to China directly via Shenzhen or Shanghai. In the near future, China will also start importing gold directly to Beijing. Because we don’t have the numbers on direct imports to these three cities, we cannot provide an overall picture of the Chinese gold imports. The numbers published by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department do however give a good estimation, since most of the yellow metal is still imported from Hong Kong.

    Record year

    Last year, Chinese banks imported a record amount of 1.158,16 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong. A big drop in the gold price enticed the Chinese middle class to rush and buy more. With a more or less stabilizing price, the demand for the precious metal dropped. Year to date, the Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong are 347 tonnes, which is more than the 294 tonnes after the first four months of last year. If the demand for gold picks up later this year, China could surpass the record imports of last year.

  • Russia bought 28 tonnes of gold in April

    Russia bought 28 tonnes of gold in April, according to the latest data released by the Bank of Russia. With the purchase, valued at a market price of $1,17 billion, Russia expands it’s gold holdings to a total of 1.070 tonnes. This purchase was the largest since may 2010, when the Bank of Russia added 34,22 tonnes to their gold holdings. The country has been buying substantially since 2006, when it had only about 250 tonnes in their vaults. With the present gold hoard at 1.070 tonnes, Russia ranks sixth among the largest gold holdings in the world.

    Since 2006, Russia values it’s gold reserves at the current market price, instead of a fixed historical price. This valuation method is derived from the Eurosystem, which values the European gold reserves at market prices each quarter since the inception of the euro currency. The central bank of Russia valued their gold at $44,3 billion on the 1st of May, which is about 9,4% of their total reserves of $471,1 billion. One year ago, Russia held a larger percentage of their reserves in precious metals, but because of the falling gold price, the percentage dropped as well. By adding yellow metal to the reserves, Russia is approaching the 10% target once again.

    Shift from dollars to gold

    According to central bank governor Sergey Shvetsov, Russia will keep adding gold to their reserves as a way to diversify from currency reserves. "Last year we bought approximately 100 tonnes of gold. This year it will be less, but it is still a substantial amount." At the same time Russia is selling dollar reserves. According to the latest TIC-data of the Federal Reserve, Russia has sold almost $26 billion of dollar reserves in March alone. Compared to one year ago Russia sold $50 billion of their total dollar holdings. This is a reduction of about 33% in one year.

    Russia bought 28 tonnes of gold in April

    Russia bought 28 tonnes of gold in April (Source: Goldchartsrus.com)

  • Gold heading to Asia through Switzerland

    Gold export figures from the Swiss Customs Administration show that most of the physical metal is being exported to Asian countries. In the first three months of 2014, most of the yellow metal went to Hong Kong (206,44 tonnes). India came in second with a net import volume of 87,52 tonnes. Direct imports of gold into mainland China take the third place with a volume of 74,9 tonnes in the first quarter of this year.

    These figures should come as no surprise, because China and India are by far the largest gold markets nowadays. However, a substantial amount went to Singapore and Saudi-Arabia as well. The total net export from Switzerland to these countries was 40,69 and 15,36 tonnes respectively. The first graph shows the ten countries to which Switzerland net exported the largest volumes of gold.

    Most of the gold is exported to Asian countries

    Most of the gold is exported to Asian countries

    Gold heading from West to East

    Switzerland is an important hub in the global physical gold market. Many transactions in this market are therefore taking place in this small and mountainous country. If we look to the other side of the balance, we find the usual suspects sending gold to Switzerland. In the first quarter of this year, the United Kingdom was the largest net exporter of the precious metal to Switzerland, bringing in 270,3 tonnes of gold. The second largest supplier of gold to the Suisse vaults was the United States, exporting a net amount of 56,77 tonnes to the European country. Third and fourth place were taken by Turkey and Russia, exporting 39,93 and 25,89 tonnes of the yellow metal to Switzerland.

    The US and the UK are supplying most of the gold to Switzerland

    The US and the UK are supplying most of the gold to Switzerland

    (h/t: BMS, Goudstudieforum)

  • China imported 80 tonnes of gold in March

    China imported 80 tonnes of gold in March

    Last month China has imported 80,6 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong, a 27,6% drop compared to the 111,4 tonnes imported in the month of February. Imports dropped as well compared to the same month last year. In March 2013, net imports of gold from Hong Kong were about 130 tonnes. The Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department publishes monthly data on the Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong. The figures about March 2014 also show in increase in gold leaving China. Compared to February, the gold exports back to Hong Kong increased from 15,8 to 23,5 tonnes of gold.

    These numbers suggest a drop in demand for physical gold in China. However, the figure of 80,6 tonnes of gold imported remains substantial. While it may be less than the amount of gold imported in 2013, it is well above the long-term average. Another side note we have to make is that China does not publish data on gold which enters the mainland directly through Shenzhen, Shanghai or Beijing. There are no exact figures on direct gold imports, but the most recent estimate states a volume of more than 190 tonnes during 2013.

    China imports less gold

    Last year we saw an explosive growth in Chinese gold demand, but the last couple of months demand has waned a little. The goldprice didn't drop further from 2013 lows, but it hasn't made a big move to the upside either. The relative price stability allows the Chinese consumer to wait before buying gold. Because of the drop in gold demand, the premium on gold in China has fallen substantially. For the first time since September 2012, the gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange trades at a small discount to the global spot price of gold. In March, the average discount was $1,02 per troy ounce. The largest jewellery producer in China, Chow Tai Fook Group, saw a small drop in demand as well. In the first quarter of 2014 the demand increased by just 4%, compared to 11% in the last quarter of 2013. According to Liu Xu, analyst of Capital Futures Co in Beijing, the big banks in China reduced their imports because of the fall in gold premium. According to Duan Shihua of Shanghai Leading Investment Management Co, Chinese consumers might be more price-sensitive than expected.

    China imported less gold in March

    China imported less gold in March

  • Banks cannot forecast gold prices

    Based on a short analysis of bank forecasts, we can conclude they are clueless about the direction of the goldprice. Last year we already gathered some forecasts by a number of big commercial banks and now we’ve added the most recent forecasts for 2014. Early 2013, when the gold price was about $1.650 per troy ounce, almost all banks expected prices would rise to $1.800 or even more dollars per troy ounce. Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch even expected the price would reach or surpass $2.000 per troy ounce in 2013. The lowest forecast was still $1.650 per troy ounce, so basically none of these banks expected the drop in price we saw last year.

    Gold price forecasts by ten different banks through time

    Gold price forecasts by ten different banks through time

    Bank analysts extrapolate past gold returns?

    After the violent price drop of gold in the first half of 2013, many banks slashed their forecasts for both 2013 and 2014. The red and green bars in the graph show the sudden adjustment to the new reality. Compared to just one year ago, banks slashed their forecasts by hundreds of dollars. For 2014, these banks expect a further price drop to on average $1.187 per troy ounce. That's as low as the 2013 bottom!

    Contrary to what most banks expected, the yellow metal made a nice rebound in early 2014. This year, the price of gold has already gained more than 10% and surpassed the 200 day moving average. This year, the difference between the average gold price and the predicted gold price for 2014 is already $75 per troy ounce, as you can see from the chart below. It seems like bank analysts tend to extrapolate past returns. They were too optimistic in early 2013 and they seem to be too pessimistic on gold right now.

    Difference between gold forecast and the actual gold price

    Difference between gold forecast and the actual gold price

  • Opinion on capital flows

    It are the flows of economic & financial capital that say who is poor or rich (prosperous) at any given moment. Capital, travels around the world in search for profits and always comes back home. Let us focus on one particular aspect of this economic & financial capital in the financial globalization. There is too much capital for too little physical economy. This disproportion rises systemically just like the growing mismatches of global debt (and stock markets capitalization) versus GDP. These masses (XX trillions) of debt capital (hot money) are systemically backed by less economy and more finance. High Net Worth Individuals have to manage a fast rising volume of already +/- $ 50 trillion.

    Today, there is a massive flight to liquidity, driven by the fears of capital safety. For the time being, the dollar capital flows are not yet showing any signs of loss of confidence, when leaving fertile grounds and coming back home. The $ bonds are not yet declining! Forward guidance is still in control of dangerous volatility and debasement risks (expectations). The world’s gigantic capitals can still move (refuge) into the ever expanding $ debt paper. $-bonds can keep up the appearances of quality.

    Financial capital

    Economic capital is still increasingly flowing into the giant pool of financial capital! Evidence that there’s something rotten in the global debt-driven economy. We are heading for a depression if this has to continue. All the exuberant monetary expansions never fully reached the physical economies. Confidence in the pool of finance capital has to remain in high spirits, because there is no alternative. A very uncomfortable and depressive catch-22 situation. The more so as the volume of finance capital is growing (inflating) disproportionally versus tangible real assets. Where will the next capital flows go to !? At present goldprices, the physical goldmarket is much too small to receive any inflow from the enormous volume of finance capital. How can finance capital possibly buy significant amounts of physical gold if China is accumulating the scarce available metal. Finance capital is forced to stay in finance (financial industry) and remain confident that this market stays liquid and safe. The exact name for the present situation is SYSTEMIC DEBT CRISIS. How long can the present liquidity-confidence and safety beliefs in economy & finance, possibly be maintained? The enormous mismatches are not declining...

    No escape route

    The relentless rising mismatches and disproportions will non-stop erode and undermine the much needed confidence in the system. All capital will increasingly feel unsafe and experience it the hard way, without any possible escape route. What if the goldprice rises significantly ($ xx.xxx/oz) and the physical goldmarket becomes an alternative for 1% of financial capital inflow… Then a GOLD VALUE STANDARD is born and maturing. Will the gold paper market soon become too small for financial capital to flow through… Written by: 24 carat

    Global money supply

    Global money supply (Source: Dollardaze)

  • Freegold: Why gold is not money

    Freegold: Why gold is not money

    Quite often we hear ‘gold bugs’ saying “gold is money”. Or that it should be money again, for example by linking the value of money to a certain amount of gold. These sentiments are characteristic for a time in which central banks provide almost unlimited amounts of liquidity to the banking system and in which banks are saved by taxpayers for billions of dollars. Yet gold bugs should understand that the monetary problems are not solved with a return to gold money.

    Gold Standard

    The idea of linking money to a fixed amount of gold has some prominent supporters. People like Ron Paul, Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff and many others are very popular among the goldbugs for their view on gold. Inspired by the Austrian school of economics they oppose the Keynesian view and plead for a return to ‘sound money’, that is money with intrinsic value. According to many gold bugs we could limit the power of the banks and governments with a return to money backed by the precious metal.

    By imposing a gold-exchange standard we could end the fractional reserve banking, forcing governments to live within their means. Expensive wars would be limited in scope and duration, because governments would not be able to finance it. A gold exchange standard would discipline both banks and governments, according to the proponents of a return to a gold-backed currency.

    Bretton Woods

    The failure of the Bretton Woods system proves that linking money to a specific amount of gold will end sooner or later. The Americans promised a dollar ‘as good as gold’ after the second World War, promising foreign countries to exchange dollars for gold at a fixed rate of $35/oz. The world started accepting  Treasuries from the United States government as a central bank reserve equal to gold. As long as those dollar reserves could be exchanged for physical yellow metal at a fixed rate, those dollar reserves would indeed be as valuable as the gold itself.

    However, the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods did not impose a limit on credit expansion in the United States. The US could keep on living beyond their means, because other countries saw no other purpose for their dollars other than lending them back to the US. Exporting countries put dollar denominated debt on their balance sheet as backing for their own currency, like if it was a gold reserve. The US debt piled up in the rest of the world, while the dollar was still valued as if it were physical gold. It was a remarkable exorbitant privilege, which was threatened for the first time during the sixties.

    France, the Netherlands and other European countries started exchanging their dollar reserves (euro dollars) for gold at the US Treasury. Within a few years it was abundantly clear to everyone that the US couldn’t keep it’s promise to deliver gold at $35 per troy ounce. The dollar for gold exchange window had to be closed in 1971, to prevent the US running out of it’s remaining ~8100 tonnes of metal.

    Depleting US gold reserves during Bretton Woods

    Depleting US gold reserves during Bretton Woods (Source: Sunshineprofits)

    Freegold

    Linking gold to a currency is always doomed to fail. The expansion of the money supply through bank lending and government deficit spending puts pressure on a fixed gold price, a pressure which can only be released by either revaluing gold at a higher price (from $20,67 to $35 per troy ounce in 1934) or by selling gold (London Gold Pool during the sixties). There is no discipline in a gold standard which links gold to the currency, it is just a matter of time before we can all agree it has failed. How long such a gold standard can live depends on the price at which the gold is fixed, how much gold there is in the vault to back up the currency and how fast the supply of currency expands. The only certainty is that it will fail sooner of later.

    Sooner or later people will see the scam in such a gold standard and start demanding the undervalued physical gold in exchange for the vastly overvalued paper currency. This can happen on a national level, but also on a global scale as we saw in the late sixties.

    Gold is valuable

    Don’t be mistaken when I say gold is not money. It is a precious and valuable asset! The metal does not degrade, has a high liquidity and is recognized worldwide. The high stock to flow ratio means total supply of gold cannot be diluted in a short time frame. The idea that gold should be money is based on the past, when both gold and silver were used as a tradable good. Back then, goods were exchanged for goods and gold and silver were the most liquid ones available to the market. Because the value was only in the metal itself, private gold smiths could make coins with standardized weight and purity to improve the trade.

    This was the first step to money based on mutual trust. Coins with standard weight and purity could be exchanged much easier than raw pieces of precious metal, because people trusted the goldsmith and didn’t need to assess every single piece of gold as thoroughly as they would with random pieces of gold and silver.

    However, the use of gold and silver coins in trade was still a form of barter. There was a direct exchange of goods (livestock, food, tools) and services for other goods (gold, silver).

    Money is credit

    As the time passed by, people started to figure out it was much easier to exchange promises instead of gold and silver coins. Banks emerged when goldsmiths handed out unbacked gold certificates to clients, pieces of paper which were not backed by gold in the goldsmith’s vault.

    This was the turning point in the history of money, because the money evolved from asset to liability. No longer was the value of money based on the value of the precious metal, but by the knowledge that the money would be accepted as a means of payment for other goods or services. Central banks and governments guarantee the acceptance of the currency. Money evolved from a barter tool to a bookkeeping system, in which the currency is used to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. Think of it as a large scoreboard.

    Money became a claim on the productivity in the real world economy, a claim which would be guaranteed by a central bank. That’s why there is a signature of the head of the central bank on every banknote. Money nowadays is nothing more or less than the representation of a social contract, as Wim Duisenberg put it in his acceptance speech in 2002. He said the following about money:

    “We engage in an exchange of goods and services everyday by using money as the means of exchange; and we offer our labour in exchange for money, which, in itself, has no value. We only do this because we believe that we will, in turn, be able to exchange that money for more goods or services. This fact tells us much about the confidence that we place in money itself. And it tells us much more about the confidence that we place in each other. Hence, money is, in essence, a social contract.

    FOFOA also describes money as an accounting system, symbolized by physical representations in the form of coins and notes that have almost no intrinsic value. This is what he said in one of his articles.

    Transactional currency is simply a notional, purely symbolic token medium of exchange, much more replaceable, resource-efficient and environmentally friendly than mining stupid metals for stupid coins.”

    Gold is not money

    Money is debt, created by the banks to fulfill the demand for debt in a society. The primary goal of this debt is to improve the flow of goods and services in the economy. Money in it’s current form is an excellent unit of account and medium of exchange. Euro’s, dollars and other fiat currencies are much easier for daily transactions than gold and silver coins.

    The yellow metal is much more useful as an antipode of debt, being the currency in circulation. Gold as a physical asset that compensates for the loss of value in fiat currencies. When you take this perspective, it might be no surprise for you that gold is the number one asset on the Eurosystem balancesheet. On the opposite side of the balance sheet, we find currency in circulation.

    ECB balance sheet

    ECB balance sheet

    The gold reserve is revalued quarterly to reflect the market value of gold. An increase in the price of gold increased the value of the gold reserve, as well as the revaluation account in the liabilities side of the balance sheet. When the price of the precious metal goes down, the same amount is deducted from the revaluation account. So the price of gold can move freely in this system. The undervaluation of gold in in fixed gold standard is solved, once we stop striving for a fixed price of the precious metal in currency terms.

    Gold as wealth reserve

    While fiat currency is the most convenient instrument for daily transactions as a unit of account and a medium of exchange, physical gold is the most useful store of value. The metal has all the desirable properties for those wanting to store purchasing power for future consumption. When buying gold, you exchange your fiat currency for a piece of useless gold metal. This is beneficial for all of us, because this transaction doesn’t involve interest. The alternative is to lend money, which requires a certain amount of interest. By exchanging excess currency for gold, one makes his currency available without interest attached to the transaction.

    The possession of gold is not only being promoted in China, but also in the Eurozone with the special tax exemption on gold. It is a recognition of gold as a wealth asset, available for those producing more than they consume. Savers can protect their wealth in gold (among other tangible assets), a metal which can appreciate in value without damaging the real economy.




  • China imported 76 tonnes of gold in December

    China has increased it’s gold imports in December, according to the latest figures published by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Gross gold imports through Hong Kong amounted to 126,64 tonnes, an increase of 18% compared to the month of November. Net import – deducting the amount of gold shipped back from China to Hong Kong – increased from 76,39 tonnes in November to 94,54 tonnes in December. This is an increase of more than 23% on a month to month basis.

    The increased imports in December could be explained by an increase in inventory due to the Chinese New Year. On the last day of January, Chinese celebrated the Year of the Horse. Many Chinese regarded this as a good time to buy some gold. Prices were also down in December, adding to the demand.

    Gross gold imports from Hong Kong to China in 2013 and 2012

    Gross gold imports from Hong Kong to China in 2013 and 2012

    Gross versus net gold imports from Hong Kong to China

    Gross versus net gold imports from Hong Kong to China

    China doubles gold imports

    China imported twice as much gold through Hong Kong in 2013 as they did in 2012. Last year, total net import amounted to more than 1.128 tonnes of gold, more than double the 557,7 tonne imported in 2012. Gross imports rose from 834,4 tonnes in 2012 to a record 1.496,82 tonnes in 2013, an increase of almost 80%. While China imports the majority of it's gold through Hong Kong, it is not the only channel. There is also a substantial amount of gold entering China directly through Shanghai. However, the Hong Kong import figures give a good estimate on the development of Chinese gold demand in the last couple of years. According to analyst Victor Thianpriya from the Australia New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) we can expect even higher gold import figures for January. This is not only because of the Chinese New Year, but also because many Chinese believe the goldprice will not drop much further.

    China overtakes India

    India was the largest importer of gold for years, but the Chinese managed to overtake India last year. India has to deal with a balance of payments deficit, caused by the import of both oil and gold. To stop the rupee from declining further, the Indian government and central bank restricted the import of gold. While the smuggling has increased since, official imports came down significantly. In China on the other hand, the government is promoting the ownership of physical gold among the people. China and India combined account for almost half of the world annual demand for physical gold.

  • The severed link between money and gold

    The permanent relationship between money and gold as a wealth metal has always been a very delicate one. The efforts to sever the link between money and gold were always very dubious. John Law (1671), Nixon (1971) and the most recent by Wim Duisenberg (2002 Aachen acceptance speech).

    “The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.”

    Decoupling of gold and money

    The decoupling of gold and money was always halfhearted and relatively short lived. Because, it was always a matter of debasing monetary expansion. Most probable it is different this time... The old Euroland continent and the China Center Empire now definitely have a running gold affair. Both want to end the system of monetary gold. Monetary gold is worthless money-linked gold. Gold is not money, but a tangible wealth metal. Euroland and Middle East/Far East don’t want any money-tied gold standard to function as a monetary and financial disciplinary force. That’s why the ECB changed its central bank gold reserves formerly at fixed prices into a gold wealth reserve on its balance sheet, where it is marked at market prices. There is also no VAT on the yellow metal in Euroland! No one recognizes this yet as the most dramatic fundamental changes against the old dollar based gold standard principles... which by design were never disciplinary or store of value. The gold demonetization idea (or is it strategy..?) already lived under the Charles de Gaulle / Rueff decade and never faded away. Speech by Robert D Sleeper, Head of the BIS Banking Department, to the South African Reserve Bank, 18 February 2005. Marking CB goldreserves to Market (BIS)

    Free floating gold

    The purpose of having gold decoupled from financial-monetary affairs is to decouple it from debt. A store of value can only float freely when completely dissociated from manipulative mismanaged debt. Gold was made for men and it must have its value by them (Wim Duisenberg). When non monetary gold is allowed to compete freely with other values, it becomes the best disciplinary force one can possibly imagine. The debt & tax-o-mania system is increasingly becoming dysfunctional for the creation of durable prosperity. The founding fathers of the European Monetary Union recognized this already a long time ago (after World War II) when they started to draw the EMU architecture. But it still takes a lot of time and efforts to break loose from the Anglo-Saxon dominance. Western Debt/GDP and monetary base evolved past the point of no return as the Freegold architects expected and anticipated with the new architecture. Monetary gold is on its way out... and welcomed by the Asian wealth producers and the Middle East wealth owners.

    Conclusion

    Why must monetary gold be demonetized!? As long as the gold pricing stays in the monetary system, its valuation will remain volatile and hectic. Three to nine kilograms of yellow metal for an average Western house, 10 to 35 barrels of oil for one troy ounce of gold, and a wild swinging gold price versus the expanding central banks balance sheet and monetary base. These manipulative price swings can only stop when the physical metal is not artificially backing anything anymore in the financial/monetary complex. That’s what the ongoing official/central bank and private shifts in physical gold ownership are all about! Physical gold must be properly redistributed on a global scale as to reach an international agreement on non-monetary gold revaluation. The ongoing central bank gold reserve turbulence during the past two decades must definitely have taken place for a purpose! The world’s pro-gold factions want Free Floating Gold Value (Freegold) without any monetary link. That is the valuation of demonetized physical gold and not unfree monetary electronic gold. The private market of physical metal is in progress to corner the manipulative priced electronic gold. Written by 24 carat

    The severed link between money and gold

    The severed link between money and gold

  • China bought 42% less gold in November

    China imported less gold in November compared to the month before, according to the latest data published by the South China Morning Post. Gross imports in November were 107,36 tonnes, compared to a 7-month high of 147,92 tonnes in October. Despite the drop in imports compared to one month ago, imports were still higher compared to the same month of 2012. However, the monthly difference between this year and least year was the smallest in November.

    Net gold imports, which deduct the flow of gold from China back to Hong Kong from the gross import figure, dropped to 76,39 tonnes in November. Compared to the 131,19 tonnes in November it amounts to a 42% decrease in demand. From May till October, the net Chinese gold imports were steady above 100 tonnes.

    A dealer in Hong Kong gave toe following explanation for the decline in gold imports: "It seems that banks have finished using up the quotas, which may be the reason why imports were down. Another reason is that people already have enough gold after recent purchases because prices had been steady in November." Bargain hunters in the Chinese gold market are either waiting for lower prices or have already bought gold in October.

    Chinese gold imports dropped 42% in November

    Chinese gold imports dropped 42% in November

    China largest buyer of gold

    This year China will import more gold than India, the second largest buyer of gold. Indian demand for gold remains strong, but as a result of the import restrictions (tax and quota) the official gold imports declined. The decline was offset by in increase in gold smuggling. According to the World Gold Council (WGC) the amount of gold smuggled into India was about 150 tonnes. The Chinese authorities in the other hand promote the accumulation of gold, by increasing the number of companies allowed to import and export gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The graphs below only represent the gold imports of China through Hong Kong and not the imports through other channels. Earlier this year we found out that China is also importing gold directly through Shanghai. Unfortunately, we don't know how those number relate to the imports through Hong Kong. China remains very secretive regarding the gold market. They don't publish total gold imports on a month to month basis. Also, China is reluctant to share the size of their official gold reserves with the rest of the world.

    Gross versus Net Chinese gold imports

    Gross versus Net Chinese gold imports

  • Graph: How much gold and dollars did central banks buy?

    Earlier this month we published a graph about the US Treasury purchases by foreign countries. From these numbers we concluded China and Japan were the main buyers of this dollar denominated debt, together with the United Kingdom and the Caribbean banking sector. The oil-exporting countries, Russia, Hong Kong, Thailand and some other countries decided to reduce their US Treasury holdings in 2013. It should be clear by now that most countries are not so keen on adding more dollars to their total reserves (with the expection from some countries like Venezuela and Iran). Instead, more countries want to diversify their foreign currency holdings with a tangible asset like gold. Mortymer sent me a tweet earlier this week with the suggestion to put dollar and gold purchases together in one graph…

    TIC-data

    We already had the data to put such a graph together. We started with the TIC-data, published monthly with some delay by the Federal Reserve. We took the time period between January 2002 and September 2013. From these two months we collected data about the gold reserves, mostly from the World Gold Council website. They publish a monthly statement with the official gold holdings. Some missing numbers could be retrieved from the IMF website.

    Unfortunately the data is not 100% complete, because we couldn’t find reliable information on the Iranian gold reserve and the gold held by the Caribbean banking sector. There are some numbers about the Iranian gold reserve, varying from 320 to 500 tonnes, but these are not official numbers. This is the same problem we have with the Chinese gold holdings. We expect them to be much larger than the 1054 tonnes published in 2009. The figure could be multiple thousands right now, but we simply don’t have data to prove it.

    Gold reserves versus dollar reserves

    Despite the shortcomings mentioned above we still get an interesting result if we put all the information together in one graph. The blue bars show the change in US Treasury holdings between January 2002 and September 2013 (in billion dollars), while the yellow bars represent the purchase or sale of official gold holdings (in metric tonnes). Click on the graph to see the full size version.

    Change in dollar and gold holdings since 2002

    Change in dollar and gold holdings since 2002

    Central banks act in their own way

    We can’t draw a clear conclusion based on the graph above, given there is no correlation between the amount of dollars and gold added by central banks during this period. Countries like Russia, Turkey, Mexico, India, Korea, and Thailand bought way more gold than dollars.

    The oil-exporting countries (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bahrain, Iran, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, the U.A.E., Algeria, Gabon, Libya en Nigeria) have added both gold and dollars in a balanced matter. China is probably working hard to put more gold against the pile of dollar reserves, but we have no official data to rely on.

    A special case is Japan, which has been supporting the dollar by buying billions of US Treasuries and not adding a single ounce of gold to their reserves. The central banks from Switzerland, France, the Netherlands and Spain did’nt buy a whole lot of US debt, but they were liquidating a substantial amount of goud reserves between January 2002 and September 2013!