Marketupdate

Tag: foreign holdings

  • Grafiek: De tapering is overal

    In een recent rapport getiteld “Tapering Everywhere” van Sandler O’Neill kwamen we een interessante grafiek tegen die we u zeker niet willen onthouden. De grafiek laat zien wie het tekort van de Verenigde Staten de afgelopen jaren heeft gefinancierd. We zien een overzicht van september 2004 tot en met september 2013, aangevuld met schattingen voor de komende twee jaar.

    Ieder balkje vertegenwoordigt de totale aankopen van staatsobligaties van de Verenigde Staten gedurende een kwartaal, uitgedrukt in miljarden dollars. De donkerblauwe balkjes geven de aankopen weer van binnenlandse beleggers en de lichtblauwe balkjes die van buitenlandse beleggers (met name centrale banken in de rest van de wereld). De oranje balkjes weerspiegelen tenslotte de aankopen van Treasuries door de Federal Reserve.

    Niet alleen de Federal Reserve doet aan tapering

    Niet alleen de Federal Reserve doet aan tapering (Bron: "Tapering Everywhere" van Sandler O'Neill)

    Niet alleen de Federal Reserve doet aan tapering...

    Als we deze grafiek bestuderen kunnen we er verschillende conclusies uit halen. Als eerste valt ons op hoeveel staatsobligaties Amerikaanse beleggers en het buitenland kochten in de de eerste jaren van de crisis. De aankopen van de Federal Reserve waren op dat moment nog relatief klein, in vergelijking met de totale vraag naar Amerikaans schuldpapier. Tijdens het QE2 programma veranderde de dynamiek. De centrale bank kocht veel meer staatsobligaties op en compenseerde daarmee voor de netto verkopen van Treasuries binnen de VS. Het buitenland bleef de Amerikaanse tekorten financieren, maar verzamelde in 2013 veel minder Treasuries dan in voorgaande jaren. Onder het huidige QE3 programma financiert de Amerikaanse centrale bank een nog groter deel van de tekorten, zoals onderstaande grafiek mooi laat zien. Ondertussen bouwen zowel Amerikaanse beleggers als het buitenland hun aankopen van schuldpapier af. De maker van de grafiek verwacht dat de Federal Reserve spoedig haar QE3 programma zal afwikkelen en dat Amerikaanse beleggers dat verschil goed zullen maken. Maar hoe groot is die kans?

  • Federal Reserve dominates the US Treasury market

    This week the Federal Reserve published new data regarding the foreign holdings of US Treasuries. These numbers show Belgium was the largest buyer of US Treasury debt in November last year with an increase in holdings of $20,3 billion. China came in second with a purchase of $12,2 billion of US debt and Japan was the third largest buyer with a $12 billion increase in US government bond holdings. Largest seller was Russia, decreasing it’s US Treasury holdings by $10 billion.

    The following charts shows the net changes in bond holdings for the largest foreign holders of US debt. The first chart shows the net change in November, the second chart shows the net change since January 2013. As you can see, the Federal Reserve dominates the charts with their bond buying programme called QE. Last month, the central bank took $47,7 billion dollars of US Treasuries out of the market. In the first eleven months of last year, Bernanke added $456,7 billion dollars of US Treasuries to the Fed balance sheet. This figure dwarfs the $102,5 billion of debt bought by China and the $82,5 billion added by the Japanese.

    Belgium was the largest foreign buyer of US debt in November

    Belgium was the largest  foreign buyer of US debt in November

    The Federal Reserve bought $456,7 billion of US Treasuries, dwarfing China and Japan

    The Federal Reserve bought $456,7 billion of US Treasuries, dwarfing China and Japan

    Federal Reserve stockpiling US Treasuries

    The Federal Reserve has been buying US Treasuries for a while now. In the last four years they bought more than $1,6 trillion of US government debt, while China and Japan only managed to purchase $577,1 and $551,6 billion of US debt. The next chart explains it all.

    The Federal Reserve bought way more Treasuries than any foreign country

    The Federal Reserve bought way more Treasuries than any foreign country

  • China and Japan are buying Treasuries again

    Both China and Japan added a substantial amount of US Treasuries in September, according to the latest TIC-data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday. The total foreign holdings of US debt increased as well in September, ending a five-month selling spree of US debt. Compared to August, foreign countries added a net amount of $64,1 billion in US Treasuries to their reserves. The two largest buyers were China and Japan with net purchases of $25,7 and $29 billion respectively.

    The following graph shows all changes in foreign holdings of US debt in September, compared to the month before.

    Which countries added US Treasuries in the month of September?

    Which countries added US Treasuries in the month of September?

    Foreign countries hold on to their US Treasuries

    If we take a look at US bond purchases in the first nine months of 2013, we see a similar pattern arise. This year, China added $79,6 billion of Treasuries to their reserves. Japan’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by $74,2 billion in 2013. Other important buyers of US debt were Caribbean banks (+$29,1 billion) and the UK (+$19 billion). Countries like Singapore, Thailand and Russia each sold a substantial amount of US Treasuries in 2013. Their holdings decreased by more than $20 billion. The oil exporting countries – fourth largest foreign holder of US Treasuries – were also selling some of their dollar reserves. Compared to the first of January they sold $15,9 billion of dollar denominated government debt.

    Which countries bought US Treasuries in 2013?

    Which countries bought US Treasuries in 2013?

    Federal Reserve

    The central bank of the United States – the Federal Reserve – is buying US Treasuries as well. With quantitative easing they are taking billions of dollars of US Treasuries of the market. In September alone, the central bank bought almost $40 billion of long-term US government debt. In the first nine months of 2013, the Federal Reserve added approximately $360 billion of US government debt to their ever expanding balance sheet.

    If we compare the purchases of Treasuries by the Federal Reserve to the purchases done by foreign countries, it becomes clear how the United States is cheating on the rest of the world. It should be clear that they will never repay their debts to foreign countries with the purchasing power of today’s dollars. Countries like China and Russia are fully aware of this and started expanding their gold reserves.

    The Federal Reserve bought more Treasuries than any foreign country in September

    The Federal Reserve bought more Treasuries than any foreign country in September

    So far this year, the Federal Reserve has bought a lot more US Treasuries than any foreign country

    So far this year, the Federal Reserve has bought a lot more US Treasuries than any foreign country

    Debt financing of the United States

    The last graph we want to share with our audience puts the foreign holdings of US debt together with all the Federal Reserve holdings. This graph goes back to 2003 and covers more than ten years of US debt accumulation done by both foreigners and the Federal Reserve. Excluded from this graph is the domestic private holding of US Treasuries, which is about $9 trillion in total at the moment. We can get to this number by simply deducting the foreign holdings and the Federal Reserve purchases of US Treasuries from the official US debt, which is more than $17 trillion at the moment.

    US government debt held by the Federal Reserve and foreign countries

    US government debt held by the Federal Reserve and foreign countries