Bill Gross adviseert: beleg in inflatie-gevoelige, aanbodbeperkte grondstof producten

Via Pimco:

The Great Escape: Delivering in a Delevering World

  • When interest rates cannot be dramatically lowered further or risk spreads significantly compressed, the momentum begins to shift, not necessarily suddenly, but gradually – yields moving mildly higher and spreads stabilizing or moving slightly wider.
  • In such a mildly reflating world, unless you want to ea an inflation-adjusted retu of minus 2%-3% as offered by Treasury bills, then you must take risk in some form.
  • We favor high quality, shorter duration and inflation-protected bonds; dividend paying stocks with a preference for developing over developed markets; and inflation-sensitive, supply-constrained commodity products.

About six months ago, I only half in jest told Mohamed that my tombstone would read, “Bill Gross, RIP, He didn’t own ‘Treasuries’.” Now, of course, the days are getting longer and as they say in golf, it is better to be above – as opposed to below – the grass. And it is better as well, to be delivering alpha as opposed to delevering in the bond market or global economy. The best way to visualize successful delivering is to recognize that investors are locked up in a financially repressive environment that reduces future retus for all financial assets. Breaking out of that “jail” is what I call the Great Escape, and what I hope to explain in the next few pages.

Dat Bill Gross allesbehalve een domme man is, bewijst hij in zijn Outlook Letter April 2012. Hij bekijkt het financiële landschap met arendsogen en doet dat met het historische besef dat goud door overheden als monetair en disciplinair middel is verwijderd. Terecht merkt hij op dat de geld- en kredietexpansie heeft geleid tot financiële repressie en dat zal volgens hem in de toekomst alleen maar toenemen.

In deze financiële, fiscale en monetaire omgeving is er voor beleggers sprake van louter slechte beleggingsmogelijkheden. Bill Gross ziet echter ook mogelijkheden dat er toch ook mogelijkheden bestaan om rendement te maken. Allesbehalve US Treasury bills (kortlopende Amerikaanse staatsobligaties) is het devies, want iedere houder daarvan levert vrijwillig 2 tot 3% van zijn vermogen in.

The term delevering implies a period of prior leverage, and leverage there has been. Whether you date it from the beginning of fractional reserve and central banking in the early 20th century, the debasement of gold in the 1930s, or the initiation of Bretton Woods and the coordinated dollar and gold standard that followed for nearly three decades after WWII, the trend towards financial leverage has been ever upward. The abandonment of gold and embracement of dollar based credit by Nixon in the early 1970s was certainly a leveraging landmark as was the deregulation of Glass-Steagall by a Democratic Clinton administration in the late 1990s, and elsewhere globally. And almost always, the private sector was more than willing to play the game, inventing new forms of credit, loosely known as derivatives, which avoided the concept of conservative reserve banking altogether. Although there were accidents along the way such as the S&L crisis, Continental Bank, LTCM, Mexico, Asia in the late 1990s, the Dot-coms, and ultimately global subprime ownership, financial institutions and market participants leaed that policymakers would support the system, and most individual participants, by extending credit, lowering interest rates, expanding deficits, and deregulating in order to keep economies ticking. Importantly, this combined fiscal and monetary leverage produced outsized retus that exceeded the ability of real economies to create wealth. Stocks for the Long Run was the almost universally accepted mantra, but it was really a period – for most of the last half century – of “Financial Assets for the Long Run” – and your house was included by the way in that category of financial assets even though it was just a pile of sticks and stones. If it always went up in price and you could borrow against it, it was a financial asset. Securitization ruled supreme, if not subprime.

Lees verder: The Great Escape: Delivering in a Delevering World

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