Nederlandse pensioenfondsen beleggen volop in staatsobligaties

Nederlandse pensioenfondsen beleggen volop in staatsobligaties. Ook blijkt uit onderzoek van de Nederlandsche Bank dat ze maar 14% van hun totale vermogen in Nederland beleggen. Eind maart was €134,9 miljard van het totale vermogen van €960 miljard belegd in Nederland. Daarvan zit overigens een groot gedeelte in staatsobligaties, namelijk €43,5 miljard. Daarnaast beleggen pensioenfondsen voor €12,7 miljard in Nederlandse hypotheken en €14 miljard in Nederlandse bedrijfsobligaties. Onderstaande tabel laat zien waar de dertig grootste Nederlandse pensioenfondsen in beleggen. Deze dertig fondsen vertegenwoordigen samen 81% van het totale pensioenvermogen in Nederland.

Beleggingen van pensioenfondsenBeleggingen pensioenfondsen naar categorie en regio

Beleggen in schulden

Pensioenfondsen beleggen nog steeds voornamelijk in schulden. Alle vastrentende waarden in bovenstaande tabel (staatsobligaties, hypotheken, bedrijfsobligaties en kortlopende vorderingen) zijn samen goed voor bijna 45% van ons totale pensioenvermogen. Is dat een solide basis voor pensioenfondsen in crisistijd? Van het totaal van €959,6 miljard is €248,9 miljard belegd in staatsschulden, schuldpapier dat heel weinig rendement oplevert. Ook lopen pensioenfondsen risico met bedrijfsobligaties en hypotheken, indien de kredietcrisis nog groter wordt. Een groot gedeelte van alle hypotheken in het bezit van pensioenfondsen zijn herverpakte woninghypotheken, de zogeheten Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS).

Pensioenfondsen beleggen in herverpakte hypotheken
Pensioenfondsen beleggen in herverpakte hypotheken

Het is nog maar de vraag of deze schuldpapieren genoeg rendement opleveren om alle verplichtingen na te komen. De minimaal vereiste dekkingsgraad houdt geen rekening met inflatie. Wil een pensioenfonds volledig indexeren voor inflatie, dan moet ze een dekkingsgraad van 150 procent bereiken. Nu centrale banken de rente laag houden verdwijnt die doelstelling steeds verder uit beeld…

Moeten pensioenfondsen meer beleggen in aandelen en hedgefondsen (nu bijna 40% van het totaal belegde vermogen) of moeten ze meer goud kopen? Wat de oplossing ook mag zijn, eind vorig jaar werd duidelijk is dat Nederlanders weinig vertrouwen hadden in hun pensioenfonds. Zal dat nu beter zijn?

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