De Federal Reserve waarschuwt dat ze de controle over de inflatie kan verliezen, indien de Amerikaanse overheid haar begrotingstekort verder laat oplopen en andere landen minder bereid zijn deze schulden te financieren. In een nieuw artikel op het blog van de Federal Reserve van St. Louis schrijft econoom Fernando M. Martin dat inflatie een fiscaal fenomeen geworden is, omdat deze meer en meer bepaald wordt door de omvang en de groei van de Amerikaanse staatsschuld.
Tussen 1955 en 2007 lag het begrotingstekort van de Amerikaanse overheid op gemiddeld 1,9% van het bruto binnenlands product, maar sinds het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis is dat tekort spectaculair toegenomen. Sinds 2007 was het gemiddelde tekort op de begroting opgelopen tot 5,3% per jaar, een stijging die voor twee derde deel toegeschreven kan worden aan hogere overheidsuitgaven.
Meer stimulering, meer schulden
Deze tekorten worden gefinancierd met de uitgifte van nieuwe staatsobligaties. Zo verdubbelde de staatsschuld van ‘slechts’ 30% van het bbp in 2007 naar bijna 64% van het bbp aan het einde van het fiscale jaar 2017. Volgens cijfers van de Federal Reserve werd deze toename van de Amerikaanse staatsschuld voor ongeveer 40% gefinancierd door het buitenland, vooral door exportlanden als China en Japan. Het ‘Keynesiaans stimuleren’ heeft gewerkt, want de Amerikaanse economie kwam door de hogere overheidsuitgaven al snel weer uit de crisis.
Nu de economie weer op volle toeren draait zou de Amerikaanse regering juist een stapje terug moeten doen en een fiscaal verantwoord beleid moeten nastreven, maar daar lijkt vooralsnog geen sprake van te zijn. Zo kondigde president Trump eind vorig jaar een grootschalig stimuleringsprogramma aan, bestaande uit tal van belastingverlagingen. Volgens de meest recente schattingen zou het begrotingstekort door deze nieuwe stimuleringsmaatregelen de komende tien jaar verder kunnen oplopen tot maar liefst 10% van het bbp.
Amerikaanse begrotingstekort sinds 1955 (Bron: St. Louis Fed)
Amerikaanse staatsschuld sinds 1955 (Bron: St. Louis Fed)
Kredietwaardigheid daalt
President Trump wil de economie verder stimuleren door de staatsschuld verder op te laten lopen. Een riskant beleid, omdat de regering dan nog kwetsbaarder wordt voor een stijging van de rente. De Federal Reserve wil de rente dit jaar verder verhogen en wil op termijn ook Amerikaans schuldpapier van haar balans wil halen. Mede daardoor is de rente op Amerikaanse 10-jaars de laatste maanden sterk opgelopen.
Volgens Fernando M. Martin dreigt de Amerikaanse overheid hierdoor in een negatieve spiraal terecht te komen, want bij een stijgende rente neemt het begrotingstekort verder toe en moet de overheid nog meer geld lenen om alle rekeningen te kunnen betalen. En dat is een groot risico, zeker als je bedenkt dat een aanzienlijk deel van de totale Amerikaanse staatsschuld door het buitenland gefinancierd wordt.
De Chinese kredietbeoordelaar Dagong besloot deze week de kredietstatus van de Amerikaanse staatsschuld te verlagen van A- naar BBB+. De toelichting van dit besluit laat aan duidelijkheid niets te wensen over:
“De steeds grotere afhankelijkheid van een schuld gedreven economisch groeimodel zal de solvabiliteit van de Amerikaanse overheid verder ondermijnen. Enorme belastingverlagingen verminderen direct de middelen om schulden mee af te betalen en daarmee verzwakt de basis waarmee de Amerikaanse regering op lange termijn haar schulden kan afbetalen.”
Volgens de Chinese kredietbeoordelaar zal de Amerikaanse overheid nog veel vaker haar schuldenplafond moeten verhogen, wat vroeg of laat de aanzet zal geven voor de volgende financiële crisis.
Oncontroleerbare inflatie?
De komende jaren zal de Amerikaanse overheid opnieuw voor miljarden moeten lenen om alle rekeningen te kunnen betalen. Dat was vlak na het uitbreken van de financiële crisis in 2008 geen probleem, omdat er toen een groot tekort was aan ‘veilig’ onderpand in de vorm van Amerikaans schuldpapier.
Anno 2018 is de situatie heel anders. De kredietwaardigheid van de VS is sterk afgenomen en andere landen lijken steeds minder belangstelling te hebben om de Amerikaanse tekorten te financieren. Zo heeft Rusland een groot deel van haar dollarreserves van de hand gedaan, terwijl ook China inmiddels genoodzaakt is haar dollarreserves af te bouwen. Alle berichten om olie in andere valuta dan de Amerikaanse dollar te verhandelen doen het vertrouwen in de dollar als wereldreservemunt ook geen goed.
Neemt de belangstelling voor Amerikaans schuldpapier af, dan zullen de begrotingstekorten van de Amerikaanse overheid op de langere termijn een aanzienlijk effect hebben op de inflatie, zo concludeert Fernando M. Martin. In dat scenario kan de Federal Reserve weinig anders meer doen dan de Amerikaanse begrotingstekorten te financieren door meer schuldpapier op te kopen. Zeker als de regering van Trump er niet in slaagt het begrotingstekort substantieel terug te dringen.
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Scherp artikel!
Dank Marcel.
Toch gek dat een handjevol centrale bankiers de geldhoeveelheid en de prijs van geld bepalen.
Centrale banken kunnen de geldhoeveelheid bijsturen met rentetarieven en kapitaalverplichtingen voor banken, maar uiteindelijk is het de bevolking als geheel die vervolgens bepaalt hoeveel geld er geleend (en daarmee gecreëerd) wordt.
Banken kunnen geen geld creëren als er geen vraag naar bankkrediet is. Centrale banken kunnen dat wel.
Ook Duitsland en Frankrijk komen in maart met gezamenlijke euro-voorstellen
Dat wordt dan de opmaat voor een mogelijk hoge inflatie en gevaarlijk E.C.B. (drukpers)geld beleid, immers door de lagere $ komt de export in gevaar.. Het wordt hierdoor met noordelijke en zuidelijke (opgerekte begrotingen) E.U. landen een groot communicerend armoe vat. Tel daarbij de horde onopgeleide slecht sprekende gelukzoekers, de robotisering, automatiseren,3 D, Nano,blockchain en algoritmische techniek,etc. en sociale onrust en chaos ligt voor de hand. Het Draghi/E.C.B. drukpersen met inkoop van een gedeeltelijk waardeloze berg drukpers obligaties van notoire schuldenlanden en de Target II E.C.B. schulden bedragen ongeveer €.3.500 miljard en moeten “”geherstructureerd”” of doorgestreept worden. Deze hele poppenkast heeft 15 jaar geduurd en is feitelijk een failliete boedel waar de noordelijke E.U. bevolking voor moet opdraaien en het is voorspelbaar hoe de financiële markten hierop zullen reageren. Geen wonder dat crypto munten opkomen. Rusland en China hadden het al jaren voorzien. Zij kopen al iedere maand ongeveer 20 ton goud met gedumpte $. En meerdere landen beginnen hun voorbeeld te volgen,Hoeveel keer heeft de geschiedenis met Frankrijk en Duitsland t.o.v. de kleine landen zich al herhaald?? De Oostblok staten weten geschiedkundig, wat bezetting, uitbuiting,onvrijheid en restricties betekenen en daarom wordt het voor Macron&Merkel nog een hele kluif. Geen wonder dat het plan vaag gepresenteerd wordt. Ben verstandig, zet je geld (gedeeltelijk) om in goud en zilver en hoogwaardige kunst. Alleen tastbaar vermogen heeft straks nog waarde.Blijf de grote diefstal voor!!!!
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Indiana University Southeast Saint Louis 2019. Ding Liren did something that no one had done in a while – defeat Magnus Carlsen in the tie-break playoff of a major tournament. A first since 2007. In a sit-down interview with HT last week, Carlsen used a verb he sparingly does for any fellow chess player. “Ding is someone I massively respected… even feared,” Carlsen said. Play the popular card game for free “Ding is exactly the kind of a player who you want to see competing in a World Championship match,” Peter Svidler, commentator and coach to R Praggnanandhaa, weighs in. “It’s just so unfortunate the way things turned out for him. I feel spending the COVID years in China where lockdowns were an actual thing, was just incredibly difficult on him,” the Russian GM tells HT, “And when the period was over, he was just a different player.”
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