De drie banken ABN Amro, NIBC en de Rabobank hebben volgens Moody's voldoende kapitaalbuffers om hun huidige rating vast te houden. Echter blijven de vooruitzichten onzeker en fragiel met het risico op nieuwe financiële schokken die de balans van de banken kan schaden. Moody's ziet gevaren in de lagere groeiverwachting, het lage consumentenvertrouwen, toenemende verliezen op de huizenmarkt en een oplopende werkloosheid. De blootstelling die de drie banken hebben verschilt onderling, maar alledrie zijn ze volgens de kredietbeoordelaar kwetsbaar voor verliezen.
Volgens Moody's kunnen de drie banken een downgrade krijgen als de waarde van commercieel vastgoed en woningen verder onder druk komt te staan. Vooral de Rabobank wordt kwetsbaar geacht voor een daling van de huizenprijzen. De gedetailleerde toelichting per bank staat hieronder en is overgenomen van de website CreditWriteDowns. De tekst is afkomstig uit een rapport van Moody's dat gisteren gepubliceerd werd.
– ABN AMRO BANK
The change in the outlook on the C- BFSR to negative from stable reflects Moody’s view that the further deterioration in the operating environment for banks in the Netherlands will likely affect the bank’s overall asset quality profile during the outlook period. As at year-end 2012, ABN AMRO had CRE sector exposures totalling EUR12 billion, which represent a large portion of its Tier 1 capital (77%), but only around 4% of the bank’s total loan book, as at the same reporting date. Additionally, its exposure to the riskier CRE sub-sectors represented a small portion of this portfolio and the rating agency has taken note of the portion of social housing loans within the bank’s CRE book, which are govement-guaranteed. The bank’s key business focus on the Netherlands with a total mortgage book of EUR153.9 billion, other consumer loans for EUR16.5 billion and the remaining part of the commercial loan book of around EUR73 billion, particularly SME loans, renders it vulnerable to the deteriorating economic environment in the Netherlands. This is also reflected by the rapid increase in loan impairment charges during H2 2012. While at a Tier 1 capital ratio of 12.9% as of FYE 2012, ABN AMRO has a significant loss-absorption buffer under our central scenario and for its current standalone credit strength of C-/baa2, Moody’s believes that the bank is vulnerable to potential shocks from a further deterioration in the operating environment and to rising risks under its assumptions.
– ING BANK
The continued negative outlook on ING Bank’s C- BFSR reflects the pressure exerted by the further deterioration in the operating environment in the Netherlands on the performance of domestic exposures. Although Moody’s believes ING Bank’s capital provides comfortable loss-absorption capacity, the likely increase in credit losses over the coming 12-18 months are expected to weigh on its profitability.
The bank’s higher diversification compared to its main peers in terms of business and geographic exposures may mitigate this impact. Nevertheless, Moody’s says that with domestic lending representing more than 30% of ING Bank’s total loan book, the bank remains sensitive to any deterioration in the Dutch retail and corporate markets. Additionally, the bank exhibits relatively high concentration on the CRE sector, including both domestic and inteational exposures which, based on the amount reported in the Real Estate Finance portfolio, accounts for 5.7% of the bank’s customer lending book and 75% of its Tier 1 capital as of end-2012.
The negative outlook also continues to incorporate Moody’s view that further deterioration in the European banks’ funding environment may weigh on ING Bank’s liquidity position as a result of its group-wide funding structure. The rating agency recognises that the latter has considerably improved over 2012, primarily as a result of a material increase in customer deposits and a substantial lengthening of ING Bank’s wholesale funding profile. Further progress achieved in the bank’s group-wide balance-sheet integration strategy has also improved liquidity at the level of ING Bank N.V., the Dutch parent company on a standalone basis. From a rating perspective, Moody’s says that these improvements offset to a large extent the negative impact exerted by the abovementioned asset-quality pressures.
– NIBC BANK
The change in outlook on NIBC Bank’s D+ BFSR reflects Moody’s view of higher asset-quality risks embedded in the bank’s corporate loan portfolio, which is focused on sectors — such as commercial real estate and shipping — that the rating agency considers as cyclical and therefore more vulnerable to the aforementioned macroeconomic downtu in the Netherlands and the rest of Europe. A material deterioration in the asset quality of this portfolio could exert pressure on the bank’s standalone financial strength, despite its sound capital base, in our view.
At end-June 2012, NIBC Bank’s CRE loans amounted to EUR1.8 billion (excluding a large exposure which has been sold to exteal investors), equivalent to just above 100% of the bank’s Tier 1 capital at end-2012. This portfolio, which comprises a relatively small number of exposures, is highly concentrated on a few limited projects, which Moody’s views as a credit weakness. These conces are partly mitigated by the fact that more than 50% of NIBC’s CRE portfolio comprises residential real-estate financing in Germany, where house prices are expected to show a strong resilience.
The bank also has a relatively large exposure to the shipping industry, of around EUR1.8 billion at end-June 2012. While not directly affected to the downtu affecting the Dutch economy, this sector is exposed to the performance of the global economies and to trade volumes. Given the persistently fragile macroeconomic environment in Europe and in some other major economies, Moody’s considers that there is potential for higher credit risks on the bank’s shipping exposures.
In addition to its CRE portfolio, NIBC reported around EUR8.2 billion of mortgage loans at end-2012, under its own book and in securitisations. The performance of the bank’s mortgage portfolio, which is predominantly composed of Dutch residential mortgages, has thus far remained resilient. Moody’s nonetheless considers that the rapid increase in the unemployment rate in the Netherlands and the prolonged decline in property prices could impair the mortgage portfolio’s overall performance.
– RABOBANK NEDERLAND
The change of outlook to negative from stable on Rabobank’s B- BFSR reflects the pressure exerted by the further deterioration in the operating environment in the Netherlands on asset quality, especially the Dutch exposures. With domestic lending representing around 75% of its total loan book, the bank is particularly sensitive to any deterioration in the Dutch retail and corporate markets, although Moody’s believes the bank’s track record of a conservative business profile will continue to mitigate this negative trend. Additionally, Rabobank’s exposure to the CRE sector represents a relatively high share of its loan portfolio (6%) and Tier 1 capital (76.8%) at the end of December 2012. However, Moody’s notes that this exposure also includes lending with a lower-risk profile than standard CRE loans, notably those extended to social housing companies that benefit from a state guarantee, as well as those granted to corporates for the financing of real estate for their own use. Although the rating agency believes that Rabobank’s high level of capital provides comfortable loss-absorption capacity, the likely increase in credit losses over the coming 12 to 18 months is expected to weigh on its profitability.